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AFL Talk - August 2008

Round Twenty-Two

August 31st 2008 15:32
1. Saints Time Their Run

A series of uncanny results enabled St.Kilda - generally regarded as the worst club in football history - to sneak into fourth position on the ladder. In the process they gained the double chance and kept alive Robert Harvey's faint hopes of winning a premiership in his final year. Saints fans (whoever they are) will be delighted. The Saints will meet Geelong next Sunday. The two clubs have a fierce rivalry which stems from the 2004 pre-season grand final. Geelong currently looks unbeatable. If the Saints can get within eight goals of the Cats they will fancy a preliminary final birth.


The St.Kilda versus Essendon match was peculiar to say the least. Essendon fielded their worst team in over twenty years. It looked like men versus boys. The ease with which the Saints midfield were able to shrug tackles was ridiculous. The Bombers were simply unable to withold the Saints onslaught. Justin Koschitzke played his best game in over one month and is considered to be the Saints wildcard coming into the finals. Although Koschitzke played well, he was still unable to go forward and kick goals. For the Saints to succeed come September, he must chime in with two or three goals in every match.

Interestingly, several of the players who were drafted in the later years of Grant Thomas' reign are now starting to come good. Sam Gilbert, Brendan Goddard, Jason Gram and Sam Fisher are all tall and athletic players who are capable of providing great run. The Saints are generally thought to lack leg speed, however many of their taller players are actually quite quick. Add Nick RIewoldt and Jason Blake - who is in career best form - and the Saints have six quick tall players. This seems to be at the core of their recent success. Ross Lyon has justified his game plan by frequently stating that it will hold up to the rigours of finals football. Now the football world will be able to judge for itself.


2. 'Buddy' Cracks Ton

On Saturday night Lance Franklin became the first player in ten years to kick one hundred goals in the home and away season. It is a magnificent achievement. Most people forget that Franklin is only in his fourth season as a player. Most fourth year players are still struggling to cement their position in a league team. Last season Franklin showed his credentials as a finals footballer. He clearly does not feel the pressure. Where Nick Riewoldt's inaccuracy in front of goal may be attributed to the yips, Franklin's poor kicking owes more to a technical deficiency. He will have less opportunities in front of goal in the finals. Franklin kicked 4.5 against the Blues. He must convert this to 6.3 come finals time. He may well hold the key to the Hawks hopes of going all the way.

Saturday night's match was bizarre. Carlton showed no signs of being interested in winning the match. Their sole objective seemed to be to get Brendan Fevola to the magical ton. During the final quarter the game degenerated into somewhat of a farce. Carlton's midfielders became so 'Fev' conscious that the Hawks defenders could easily anticipate where the ball was going to be kicked. The umpires even got in on the joke, awarding Fevola a questionable free kick. The one man who didn't join the party was Alastair Clarkson. In the dying minutes he sent Jarrod Roughead to defence to play as a loose man. While some have suggested that Clarkson made the move to enable the focus to remain on Franklin, the question has to be asked: why would he want the focus to remain on 'Buddy?'

3. Will They or Won't They

The radio airwaves have been filled with debate about whether Collingwood will recall Alan Didak and Heath Shaw for the finals. One caller even suggested that he had overheard Eddie McGuire outline the Pies plan to recall the pair while sitting at a local cafe. Put simply, this will not happen. Four weeks ago Collingwood made their decision. Although they are terribly undermanned, they must stick with the players who have got them into the finals in recent weeks. Although some of the younger players are quite raw, there is no point in budging on their previous decision. It could, potentially, set the club back many years.

The Pies now seem certain to retain Didak for 2009. There is a perception that the club has been gradually softening their stance on Didak in recent weeks. Some supporters have even started up a partition to help him remain at the club. These same supporters would love to see the mercurial forward return to face the Crows next weekend. While it is quite easy to imagine Eddie McGuire changing the club's decision, he has repeatedly ruled out the possibility on SEN radio. The reason that the possibility of Didak and Shaw returning keeps being mentioned is that if any club would be prepared to make the call, it would be Collingwood.

It will be interesting to see how Collingwood goes against the Crows. The Kangaroos and the Magpies have been tthe two biggest losers out of round twenty-two. Both sides now have to travel interstate in do or die encounters. Can Collingwood continue to play above themselves? The chances of them having a similar run to last season's finals campaign are thin. North Melbourne's loss to Port Adelaide must go down as one of the worst performances of all time. It was a home match. It was Shannon Grant's 300th game. They are a milestone club. A top four birth was at stake. The opposition had already put half of their team on the surgery table. They had everything in the world to play for. The Kangaroos seem to play above themselves week after week, but every so often (as happened on the weekend) it seems to catch up with them.

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Middleton's Brownlow Medal Favourites

August 28th 2008 15:10
Having reached the business end of the season it is time to speculate on trivial matters such as All Australian selection and Brownlow Medal odds. There is only one round remaining in the regular season. Although round twenty-two could have a huge bearing on this year's Brownlow Medal, the favourites have already been established. Below I will assess the chances of some of the hot favourites:

1. Gary Ablett

Ablett was the favourite going into last year's count. The fact that Ablett lost to Jimmy Bartel has made some pundits wary of backing him this year. Ablett has, however, taken his game to a new level in 2009. Although he missed three matches due to an ankle injury, he should still be considered the Brownlow favourite. People tend to forget just how dominant he was earlier in the year. Champion data statistics have Ablett on 26 votes so far. This ought to be enough to take Charlie home this year. There is also every chance that he will pole against the Eagles on the weekend.

2. Brent Harvey

Harvey was another played who was fancied in the lead up to last year's count. While Harvey should be a shoe-in for All Australian selection, his form in the first half of the season was a little inconsistent. There is little doubt that Harvey has finished the year strongly (he should poll three votes on at least three occasions in the run home). Yet Harvey may have no more than five votes at the halfway mark of the count. It is unlikely that he will be able to make up enough ground on the leaders.

3. Jimmy Bartel

Bartel has had a similar season to Brent Harvey. He came into his own when Gary Ablett was out injured. Although he will poll very well during this period, he has not had enough stand out performances in the first half of the season to win the Brownlow. The umpires clearly like Bartel. The likes of Joel Corey and Joel Selwood will pinch a lot of votes from him(more than last year). Bartel is a great player and may be able to win another Brownlow some time in the future. I doubt that this will be his year.

4. Scott Thompson

Thompson is an unlikely candidate for the Brownlow. Because he does not herald from Victoria he has received very little attention. Thompson polled very well in last year's count, putting in a number of best-on-ground performances. Adelaide have had a successful season and Thompson has been at the forefront of their run to the finals. He does not have much competition for votes in the Crows midfield. There is little doubt that Thompson will be in the top ten.

5. Matthew Pavlich

Pavlich always polls well. This may well be because he is the only player of his calibre at the Dockers. Although Fremantle have had a disappointing season, Pavlich has been a shining light. He has been heavily criticised for missing crucial shots at goal in a number of matches, but he has also been one of the best on ground in most of these matches. The Brownlow Medal is generally a midfielders award, but Pavlich may prove to be the excpetion. He has missed three matches in the season which will not help his cause. By my count he will finish on approximately twenty votes.

6. Adam Cooney

Two-thirds of the way through the season Cooney was equal with Ablett in the betting. Unfortunately, he will barely poll from this point onwards. The Bulldogs have suffered a dramatic loss in form over the past six weeks (which has coincided with them securing the double chance). Cooney has had a great season and will poll early in the season. He has not performaed as consistently as the likes of Ablett, Bartel and Thompson. Cooney may still achieve a top five finish.

7. Nick Riewoldt

Riewoldt was hampered by injury during the first half of the season. His side achieved very little success over this period which should mean that he doesn't poll. It will be interesting to see whether Riewoldt polls in round one. Channel ten gave him best on ground, yet he only gained nineteen possessions. Riewoldt has probably been one of the best players in the competition over the past two months. He should yield fifteen votes from this period. If he can squeeze a few votes early in the season he might be an outside chance. Riewoldt doesn't usually poll well. To win the medal he will need a best-on-ground performance against the Bombers this week.

8. Chris Judd

Although I have listed Judd at number eight, don't be surprised if something crazy happens. Make no mistake, Judd's form has not been good enough to warrant All Australian selection this year. However he has regularly been the best player during Carlton's victories. On several occasions Judd has lifted in the final quarter to get the Blues over the line. These performances will be at the forefront of the umpires thoughts when they give votes. Judd is an eye-catcher with a proven record. He has not been at his best this season, yet has still been superb. By my count Judd will come second to Ablett in a huge surprise. Imagine if he was fit...

*Although Lance Franklin is ineligable to win the Brownlow Medal this year, there is a good chance that he will finish in the top three. Franklin has kicked several bags and should poll at least twenty votes. If he can remain disciplined in future seasons there is every chance that he will win a Brownlow Medal. His teammate, Sam Mitchell, will be ruing his own lack of discpline. Mitchell has always polled well (better than Luke Hodge) and should enjoy a top ten finish this year.

I DO NOT ADVOCATE BETTING ON THE BROWNLOW MEDAL
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All Australian Team 2008

August 26th 2008 11:25
With one round remaining and the finals places sealed, it is time to put forth an All Australian team. Last season Geelong occupied nine of the twenty-two places. Despite having a better season as a team in 2008, their overall performances have been more even. The likes of Ling and Mooney do not deserve to go back to back. Although Joel Selwood has had a superb season, he has not quite been consistent enough to make the team. Other players, such as Adam Cooney, Scott Thompson and Brent Harvey - all of whom are heavily tagged every week - deserve a place ahead of Selwood.

It is difficult to select a team because it is impossible to watch every match of AFL football. I have watched every team play at length and feel that I have come up with a team that represents a cross-section of the best players in the competition. The most difficult decision was to squeeze one of Matthew Pavlich, Jonathan Brown and Nick Riewoldt out of the team. All three players are champions. Given the fact that Brown's performances have been hampered by injury during the second half of the season, he had to be the unlucky player. Other players whose cases have been put forth largely by the media, such as Drew Petrie, Robert Murphy and David Hille, simply do not deserve to be in the team.

I had Alan Didak and Jason Akermanis in my team half way through the year. For different reasons neither has been able to continue their form during the second half of the season. Probably the most contentious selection is Paul Medhurst. Luke Hodge, who has had a much better season than Medhurst, was squeezed out by the competition for midfield places. Medhurst has played an important role for Collingwood this year. He has regularly played above his height and has consistently kicked goals. If Didak hadn't have been suspended, the forward pocket spot was his. Owing to the competition for midfield places, no second ruckman deserves to be in the team.

B: Dale Morris (W.B) Matthew Scarlett (Geel) Darren Milburn (Geel)
HB: Brendan Goddard (St.K) Nathan Bock (Adel) Corey Enright (Geel)
C: Brent Harvey (Kang) Adam Cooney (W.B) Scott Thompson (Adel)
HF: Steve Johnson (Geel) Matthew Pavlich (Frem) Ryan O'Keefe (Syd)
F: Matthew Richardson (Rich) Lance Franklin (Haw) Paul Medhurst (Coll)
FOLL: Dean Cox (WCE) Jimmy Bartel (Geel) Gary Ablett (Geel)
INT: Brendan Fevola (Carl) Joel Corey (Geel) Sam Mitchell (Haw) Nick Riewoldt (St.K)

Captain: Dean Cox (WCE)
Coach: Mark Thompson (Geel)
Rising Star: Trent Cotchin (Rich)
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Round Twenty-One

August 24th 2008 12:28
1. End of an era at Sydney?

On Saturday night Collingwood continued their stranglehold over Sydney. The last five times that the two team have met the Pies have enjoyed comprehensive victories. Although Sydney are guaranteed a place in the finals, Saturday's loss has raised many questions about the direction that the club is heading in. After the match Paul Roos conceded that his side would pose little threat to opposition teams in September. The week before Roos conceded that no side could beat Geelong. Although Roos has always been applauded for his calm and honest approach, his recent comments suggest that he may not stick around to develop the next generation of Swans players


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Big Friendly Giants

August 19th 2008 12:18
Melbourne is reputed to have ambushed Fremantle ruckman Robert Warnock at the airport during the week in a bold bid to secure his services for 2009 and beyond. Warnock, who is in his third season at the Dockers, has become a much sought after player in recent weeks. His contract runs out at the end of the season. There is a small chance that the Demons will be able to secure him for free in the pre-season draft if a suitable trade is not arranged. The Demons are reported to be offering close to one million dollars over three years, which is an incredible contract for a player who is yet to prove that he is up to AFL football. It shows how important a quality ruckman is in the modern game.

Former Carlton coach Robert Walls has a well-documented infatuation with ruckmen. Walls believes that ruckmen are the single most important ingredient to a good team's structure. Walls is not necessarily correct, but no side survives without a quality ruckman. During trade week every season a range of ruckman's names are thrown around. Last season the likes of Steven King, Brad Moran, Cameron Wood and Ben Hudson all found new clubs. Matthew Kreuzer, last year's number one draft pick, has enjoyed a promising first season. However he was slaughtered by Steven King when the two players met one month ago. Kreuzer, like all young ruckmen, will take many years to mature


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Round Twenty

August 17th 2008 15:46
1. Crows Destroy Bombers

On Saturday afternoon Adelaide easily accounted for Essendon. It was the Crows fourth win in a row and gave them a faint chance of making the top four. Coming into the match the odds were quite even. Adelaide had never beaten the Bombers in Melbourne and had a depleted forward line. Unheralded forward Nick Gill kicked five goals in the best game of his short career. Gill is an unorthodox player who throws himself into marking contests with reckless regard for his own safety. However Gill lacks some of the basic skills; a weakness that may still prevent him from forging a career at the highest level. To be blunt, any side who is taken apart by Nick Gill is not very good


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Malceski Experiment A Failure

August 12th 2008 10:58
In Sydney's first pre-season match of 2008 Nick Malceski tore his anterior cruciate ligament, a mishap which would normally have been the end of his season. The Swans defender decided not to have a full knee reconstruction. Instead, he was sent to a French surgeon who used synthetic fibres to rebuild his knee. Malceski returned to senior football in the middle of the season, completing a remarkable three month recovery period (one quarter of the usual time). With the regular season almost finished, it is time to evaluate whether or not the decision has been a success.

The fact that Sydney opted for the risky surgery was testament to how important Malceski was to their structure. Tadgh Kennelly - the Swans next most attacking defender - has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons. There was no guarantee that he would be able to cover Malceski's loss. Swans recruit Martin Mattner has had a good season, but his decision making, at times, has been substandard. It is clear that the Swans felt that their hand was forced. They have had a phenomical run with injuries over the past five seasons and have built a team that relies upon stability more than anything else


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Round Nineteen

August 10th 2008 16:04
1. Eagles Future Looks Bright

On Sunday afternoon the West Coast Eagles officially ended Essendon's season with an upset victory at Subiaco. Essendon had won six of their previous seven matches and were expected to account for the understength Eagles. It became clear early in the contest that the Eagles had come to play. This season West Coast has beaten Brisbane, Adelaide, St.Kilda and Essendon in Perth. While their performances at home have, at times, lacked character - particularly their defeats by Carlton and Richmond - they have beaten four teams who are vying for the top eight. Their away record is pathetic (they haven't won away from home), but there is hope for the future


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On Wednesday afternoon Robert Harvey - arguably St.Kilda's best ever player - announced his retirement. Fittingly, Wednesday marked the twentieth anniversary of Harvey's first AFL match. Harvey will be remembered as one of the greats of the modern era, alongside Carey, Hird, Voss and Buckley. Amazingly, Harvey's career began before any of the aforementioned players and it will finish after theirs. This fact alone is testament to the brilliance of Robert Harvey.

Following St.Kilda's round three loss to the Western Bulldogs Dermott Brereton called for Robert Harvey to retire. Brereton said that Harvey resembled a forty year-old man on the football field and suggested that the game had passed him by. Brereton has been left with egg on his face. What little credibility he had left as a football analyst has been put to bed by Harvey's great form in 2008. Harvey is still one of the Saints best players every week. He defies father time. The only respect in which Brereton was right was that Harvey is almost a forty year-old man. He will turn 37 later this month


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The Best of the 2007 National Draft

August 5th 2008 11:37
Below is an assessment of the top ten draft choices from the 2007 national draft:

1. Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton


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On Friday night Collingwood were comprehensively beaten by Hawthorn. The win underlined how far away the Pies are from being genuine premiership contenders. They are now in eighth position, having stayed in the top eight on account of North Melbourne's courageous win against Brisbane. If Collingwood lose to St.Kilda next Saturday night there is a good chance that they will miss the finals. Having made the preliminary final last season, such a finish would appear to be a huge disappointment. But it might not be the worst thing to happen to Collingwood.

If the Pies continue their current form they will gain a top ten draft pick. Regardless of the players available, they must select the quickest player remaining in the draft. Usually I would not advocate such an approach, but Collingwood have looked slow and predictable in their ball movement in recent weeks. Their midfield consists of the likes of O'Bree, Burns, Swan and Lockyer - none of whom have great leg speed. Scott Pendlebury is going to be a great player, but he will need help. An injection of youth and speed might be just what the club needs to be in contention again in 2009


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