Murray MiddletonMiddleton's Brownlow Medal Favourites
August 28th 2008 15:10
Having reached the business end of the season it is time to speculate on trivial matters such as All Australian selection and Brownlow Medal odds. There is only one round remaining in the regular season. Although round twenty-two could have a huge bearing on this year's Brownlow Medal, the favourites have already been established. Below I will assess the chances of some of the hot favourites:
1. Gary Ablett
Ablett was the favourite going into last year's count. The fact that Ablett lost to Jimmy Bartel has made some pundits wary of backing him this year. Ablett has, however, taken his game to a new level in 2009. Although he missed three matches due to an ankle injury, he should still be considered the Brownlow favourite. People tend to forget just how dominant he was earlier in the year. Champion data statistics have Ablett on 26 votes so far. This ought to be enough to take Charlie home this year. There is also every chance that he will pole against the Eagles on the weekend.
2. Brent Harvey
Harvey was another played who was fancied in the lead up to last year's count. While Harvey should be a shoe-in for All Australian selection, his form in the first half of the season was a little inconsistent. There is little doubt that Harvey has finished the year strongly (he should poll three votes on at least three occasions in the run home). Yet Harvey may have no more than five votes at the halfway mark of the count. It is unlikely that he will be able to make up enough ground on the leaders.
3. Jimmy Bartel
Bartel has had a similar season to Brent Harvey. He came into his own when Gary Ablett was out injured. Although he will poll very well during this period, he has not had enough stand out performances in the first half of the season to win the Brownlow. The umpires clearly like Bartel. The likes of Joel Corey and Joel Selwood will pinch a lot of votes from him(more than last year). Bartel is a great player and may be able to win another Brownlow some time in the future. I doubt that this will be his year.
4. Scott Thompson
Thompson is an unlikely candidate for the Brownlow. Because he does not herald from Victoria he has received very little attention. Thompson polled very well in last year's count, putting in a number of best-on-ground performances. Adelaide have had a successful season and Thompson has been at the forefront of their run to the finals. He does not have much competition for votes in the Crows midfield. There is little doubt that Thompson will be in the top ten.
5. Matthew Pavlich
Pavlich always polls well. This may well be because he is the only player of his calibre at the Dockers. Although Fremantle have had a disappointing season, Pavlich has been a shining light. He has been heavily criticised for missing crucial shots at goal in a number of matches, but he has also been one of the best on ground in most of these matches. The Brownlow Medal is generally a midfielders award, but Pavlich may prove to be the excpetion. He has missed three matches in the season which will not help his cause. By my count he will finish on approximately twenty votes.
6. Adam Cooney
Two-thirds of the way through the season Cooney was equal with Ablett in the betting. Unfortunately, he will barely poll from this point onwards. The Bulldogs have suffered a dramatic loss in form over the past six weeks (which has coincided with them securing the double chance). Cooney has had a great season and will poll early in the season. He has not performaed as consistently as the likes of Ablett, Bartel and Thompson. Cooney may still achieve a top five finish.
7. Nick Riewoldt
Riewoldt was hampered by injury during the first half of the season. His side achieved very little success over this period which should mean that he doesn't poll. It will be interesting to see whether Riewoldt polls in round one. Channel ten gave him best on ground, yet he only gained nineteen possessions. Riewoldt has probably been one of the best players in the competition over the past two months. He should yield fifteen votes from this period. If he can squeeze a few votes early in the season he might be an outside chance. Riewoldt doesn't usually poll well. To win the medal he will need a best-on-ground performance against the Bombers this week.
8. Chris Judd
Although I have listed Judd at number eight, don't be surprised if something crazy happens. Make no mistake, Judd's form has not been good enough to warrant All Australian selection this year. However he has regularly been the best player during Carlton's victories. On several occasions Judd has lifted in the final quarter to get the Blues over the line. These performances will be at the forefront of the umpires thoughts when they give votes. Judd is an eye-catcher with a proven record. He has not been at his best this season, yet has still been superb. By my count Judd will come second to Ablett in a huge surprise. Imagine if he was fit...
*Although Lance Franklin is ineligable to win the Brownlow Medal this year, there is a good chance that he will finish in the top three. Franklin has kicked several bags and should poll at least twenty votes. If he can remain disciplined in future seasons there is every chance that he will win a Brownlow Medal. His teammate, Sam Mitchell, will be ruing his own lack of discpline. Mitchell has always polled well (better than Luke Hodge) and should enjoy a top ten finish this year.
I DO NOT ADVOCATE BETTING ON THE BROWNLOW MEDAL
1. Gary Ablett
Ablett was the favourite going into last year's count. The fact that Ablett lost to Jimmy Bartel has made some pundits wary of backing him this year. Ablett has, however, taken his game to a new level in 2009. Although he missed three matches due to an ankle injury, he should still be considered the Brownlow favourite. People tend to forget just how dominant he was earlier in the year. Champion data statistics have Ablett on 26 votes so far. This ought to be enough to take Charlie home this year. There is also every chance that he will pole against the Eagles on the weekend.
2. Brent Harvey
Harvey was another played who was fancied in the lead up to last year's count. While Harvey should be a shoe-in for All Australian selection, his form in the first half of the season was a little inconsistent. There is little doubt that Harvey has finished the year strongly (he should poll three votes on at least three occasions in the run home). Yet Harvey may have no more than five votes at the halfway mark of the count. It is unlikely that he will be able to make up enough ground on the leaders.
3. Jimmy Bartel
Bartel has had a similar season to Brent Harvey. He came into his own when Gary Ablett was out injured. Although he will poll very well during this period, he has not had enough stand out performances in the first half of the season to win the Brownlow. The umpires clearly like Bartel. The likes of Joel Corey and Joel Selwood will pinch a lot of votes from him(more than last year). Bartel is a great player and may be able to win another Brownlow some time in the future. I doubt that this will be his year.
4. Scott Thompson
Thompson is an unlikely candidate for the Brownlow. Because he does not herald from Victoria he has received very little attention. Thompson polled very well in last year's count, putting in a number of best-on-ground performances. Adelaide have had a successful season and Thompson has been at the forefront of their run to the finals. He does not have much competition for votes in the Crows midfield. There is little doubt that Thompson will be in the top ten.
5. Matthew Pavlich
Pavlich always polls well. This may well be because he is the only player of his calibre at the Dockers. Although Fremantle have had a disappointing season, Pavlich has been a shining light. He has been heavily criticised for missing crucial shots at goal in a number of matches, but he has also been one of the best on ground in most of these matches. The Brownlow Medal is generally a midfielders award, but Pavlich may prove to be the excpetion. He has missed three matches in the season which will not help his cause. By my count he will finish on approximately twenty votes.
6. Adam Cooney
Two-thirds of the way through the season Cooney was equal with Ablett in the betting. Unfortunately, he will barely poll from this point onwards. The Bulldogs have suffered a dramatic loss in form over the past six weeks (which has coincided with them securing the double chance). Cooney has had a great season and will poll early in the season. He has not performaed as consistently as the likes of Ablett, Bartel and Thompson. Cooney may still achieve a top five finish.
7. Nick Riewoldt
Riewoldt was hampered by injury during the first half of the season. His side achieved very little success over this period which should mean that he doesn't poll. It will be interesting to see whether Riewoldt polls in round one. Channel ten gave him best on ground, yet he only gained nineteen possessions. Riewoldt has probably been one of the best players in the competition over the past two months. He should yield fifteen votes from this period. If he can squeeze a few votes early in the season he might be an outside chance. Riewoldt doesn't usually poll well. To win the medal he will need a best-on-ground performance against the Bombers this week.
8. Chris Judd
Although I have listed Judd at number eight, don't be surprised if something crazy happens. Make no mistake, Judd's form has not been good enough to warrant All Australian selection this year. However he has regularly been the best player during Carlton's victories. On several occasions Judd has lifted in the final quarter to get the Blues over the line. These performances will be at the forefront of the umpires thoughts when they give votes. Judd is an eye-catcher with a proven record. He has not been at his best this season, yet has still been superb. By my count Judd will come second to Ablett in a huge surprise. Imagine if he was fit...
*Although Lance Franklin is ineligable to win the Brownlow Medal this year, there is a good chance that he will finish in the top three. Franklin has kicked several bags and should poll at least twenty votes. If he can remain disciplined in future seasons there is every chance that he will win a Brownlow Medal. His teammate, Sam Mitchell, will be ruing his own lack of discpline. Mitchell has always polled well (better than Luke Hodge) and should enjoy a top ten finish this year.
I DO NOT ADVOCATE BETTING ON THE BROWNLOW MEDAL
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Comment by Anonymous
What are the odds?